Evaluating Auroral Forecasts Against Satellite Observations

نویسندگان

چکیده

The aurora is a readily visible phenomenon of interest to many members the public. However, and associated phenomena can also significantly impact communications, ground-based infrastructure, high-altitude radiation exposure. Forecasting location auroral oval therefore key component space weather forecast operations. A version OVATION-Prime 2013 precipitation model (Newell et al., 2014, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014sw001056) was used by UK Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC). operational implementation at delivered 30-min probability observing aurora. Using evaluation techniques, we evaluate ability forecasts predict occurring comparing with boundaries determined from data IMAGE satellite between 2000 2002. Our analysis shows that performs well predicting oval, relative operating characteristic (ROC) score 0.82. performance reduced in dayside local time sectors (ROC = 0.59) during periods higher geomagnetic activity 0.55 for Kp 8). As probabilistic forecast, tends underpredict occurrence factor 1.1–6, while probabilities over 90% are overpredicted.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Space Weather-the International Journal of Research and Applications

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['1542-7390']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020sw002688